The silent epidemic: Global threat of antibiotic resistant bacteria: Carbapenem Resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE)

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.14288/cjur.v2i2.189309

Keywords:

epidemic, CRE, carbapenem, model, enterobacteriaceae, resistant, resistance

Abstract

In silico mathematical modeling and optimization has been a reliable means to predict the morbidity of diseases. Diseases associated with Carbapenem-Resistant Entero-bacteriacae (CRE) are difficult to treat and have been with high mortality rates due to the highly adaptive nature of this bacterial family. Currently, CRE is resistant to almost all antibiotics available (Chen, Todd, Kiehlbauch, Walters, & Kallen, 2016) with mortality rates of about 45% (“Vital Signs”, 2013). To better evaluate the severity of CRE outbreaks in Canada and the United States (US), a Python program that analyzes and predicts the potential of outbreaks escalating into epidemics was developed. The program uses two mathematical models that compare and graph the relative amounts of individuals/patients that are susceptible, infected or dead. The first model is deterministic which involves static rates taken from various data sources, whereas the second model is stochastic, which reflects dynamic rates according to parameters like time and changes in infectivity rate. Both models predicted epidemics in Canada and the US under current conditions, as expected.

References

Antibiotic resistance can occur naturally in soil bacteria. (2016, September 27). Retrieved March 06, 2017, from https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/09/160927151524.htm

Antimicrobial Copper Surfaces for Reducing Hospital-acquired Infection Risk [PDF]. (2016, February). ECRI Institute.

Antimicrobial Copper Surfaces for the Reduction of Health Care–Associated Infections in Intensive Care Settings. (2015, March 31). Retrieved Match 06, 2017, from https://www.cadth.ca/antimicrobial-copper-surfaces-reduction-health-care-associated-infect ions-intensive-care-settings

Bell, B., Bell, M., Bowen, A., Baden, C., Brandt, M., Brown, A., . . . Wortham, J. (2013). Antibiotic Resistance Threats in the United States, 2013 [PDF]. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Biggest Threats. (2016, September 08). Retrieved March 06, 2017, from https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html

Canadian Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System Report 2016. (2016, September 12). Retrieved March 12, 2017, from https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/drugs-health-products/canadi an-antimicrobial-resistance-surveillance-system-report-2016.html

Falagas, M. E., Lourida, P., Poulikakos, P., Rafailidis, P. I., & Tansarli, G. S. (2013). Antibiotic Treatment of Infections Due to Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae: Systematic Evaluation of the Available Evidence. Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy,58(2), 654-663.

Furukawa, H. (2016). Contamination of environmental surfaces by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in rooms of inpatients with MRSA-positive body sites. Brazilian Journal of Microbiology,47(3),

General Background: About Antibiotic Resistance. (n.d.). Retrieved March 06, 2017, from http://emerald.tufts.edu/med/apua/about_issue/about_antibioticres.shtml

General information about CRE. (2015, February 23). Retrieved March 06, 2017, from https://www.cdc.gov/hai/organisms/cre/cre-patientgeneral.html

Lawe-Davies, O., & Bennet, S. (2017, February 27). WHO publishes list of bacteria for which new antibiotics are urgently needed. Retrieved March 06, 2017, from http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2017/bacteria-antibiotics-needed/en/

Patel, G., Huprikar, S., Factor, S. H., Jenkins, S. G., & Calfee, D. P. (2008). Outcomes of Carbapenem-Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae Infection and the Impact of Antimicrobial and Adjunctive Therapies. Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology,29(12), 1099-1106.

Roux, D., Aubier, B., Cochard, H., Quentin, R., & Mee-Marquet, N. V. (2013). Contaminated sinks in intensive care units: an underestimated source of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae in the patient environment [Abstract]. Journal of Hospital Infection,85(2), 106-111.

Russotto, V., Cortegiani, A., Raineri, S. M., & Giarratano, A. (2015). Bacterial contamination of inanimate surfaces and equipment in the intensive care unit. Journal of Intensive Care,3(1).

Vital Signs: Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae. (2013, March 08). Retrieved March 12, 2017, from https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6209a3.htm

Downloads

Published

2017-10-13

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 2 (2017): CJUR 2(2)

Section

Articles

License


Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

  1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
  2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
  3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).