The Silent Epidemic: Global Threat of Antibiotic Resistance Bacteria - Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE)

Authors

Keywords:

epidemic, CRE, carbapenem, model, enterobacteriaceae, resistant, resistance

Abstract

Mathematical modeling and optimisation using computer programs can efficiently predict the morbidity of a certain disease. Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae, or CRE, is a family of bacteria that are associated with difficult treatment, and, consequently, high mortality. This is a result of their resistance to all or almost all available antibiotics (“Biggest Threats”, 2016). We created a Python program to analyse the outbreaks of CRE in Canada and the USA, and whether it will become an epidemic under current conditions. We used the program, which uses a mathematical model, to compare and graph relative amounts of infected, susceptible, and dead patients. We started from a deterministic model and moved to a stochastic model. The deterministic model is the initial stage of our CRE model, which includes static rates taken from various data sources. The stochastic model is the second stage of our model, where there are dynamic rates according to other parameters, such as time or increases in infectivity rate. To determine whether CREs will become an epidemic, both the deterministic graph and the stochastic graph must meet particular criteria.

References

Antibiotic resistance can occur naturally in soil bacteria. (2016, September 27). Retrieved March 06, 2017, from https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/09/160927151524.htm

Antimicrobial Copper Surfaces for Reducing Hospital-acquired Infection Risk [PDF]. (2016, February). ECRI Institute.

Antimicrobial Copper Surfaces for the Reduction of Health Care–Associated Infections in Intensive Care Settings. (2015, March 31). Retrieved Match 06, 2017, from https://www.cadth.ca/antimicrobial-copper-surfaces-reduction-health-care-associated-infect ions-intensive-care-settings

Bell, B., Bell, M., Bowen, A., Baden, C., Brandt, M., Brown, A., . . . Wortham, J. (2013). Antibiotic Resistance Threats in the United States, 2013 [PDF]. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Biggest Threats. (2016, September 08). Retrieved March 06, 2017, from https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html

Canadian Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance System Report 2016. (2016, September 12). Retrieved March 12, 2017, from https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/publications/drugs-health-products/canadi an-antimicrobial-resistance-surveillance-system-report-2016.html

Falagas, M. E., Lourida, P., Poulikakos, P., Rafailidis, P. I., & Tansarli, G. S. (2013). Antibiotic Treatment of Infections Due to Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae: Systematic Evaluation of the Available Evidence. Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy,58(2), 654-663.

Furukawa, H. (2016). Contamination of environmental surfaces by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in rooms of inpatients with MRSA-positive body sites. Brazilian Journal of Microbiology,47(3),

General Background: About Antibiotic Resistance. (n.d.). Retrieved March 06, 2017, from http://emerald.tufts.edu/med/apua/about_issue/about_antibioticres.shtml

General information about CRE. (2015, February 23). Retrieved March 06, 2017, from https://www.cdc.gov/hai/organisms/cre/cre-patientgeneral.html

Lawe-Davies, O., & Bennet, S. (2017, February 27). WHO publishes list of bacteria for which new antibiotics are urgently needed. Retrieved March 06, 2017, from http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2017/bacteria-antibiotics-needed/en/

Patel, G., Huprikar, S., Factor, S. H., Jenkins, S. G., & Calfee, D. P. (2008). Outcomes of Carbapenem-Resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae Infection and the Impact of Antimicrobial and Adjunctive Therapies. Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology,29(12), 1099-1106.

Roux, D., Aubier, B., Cochard, H., Quentin, R., & Mee-Marquet, N. V. (2013). Contaminated sinks in intensive care units: an underestimated source of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae in the patient environment [Abstract]. Journal of Hospital Infection,85(2), 106-111.

Russotto, V., Cortegiani, A., Raineri, S. M., & Giarratano, A. (2015). Bacterial contamination of inanimate surfaces and equipment in the intensive care unit. Journal of Intensive Care,3(1).

Vital Signs: Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae. (2013, March 08). Retrieved March 12, 2017, from https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6209a3.htm

Additional Files

Published

2017-10-13

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 2 (2017)

Section

Articles

License


Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

  1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
  2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
  3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).